STRATEGIC FORESIGHT, SCENARIO PLANNING AND ADAPTIVE POLICIES IN TOURISM POLICY FORMULATION: A STAKEHOLDER SURVEY IN DHI QAR, IRAQ

Abstract

Tourism policy decisions on infrastructure, conservation and governance take longer to make, while water, institutional and security conditions can vary rapidly. The study addresses the ways in which stakeholders in Dhi Qar, Iraq, a province with World Heritage components, think about drivers of change, strategic foresight and scenario planning and adaptive tourism policies, and whether such perceptions are related to the perceived effectiveness of foresight-based policy formulation. The cross-sectional questionnaire, consisting of 24 items on a five-point scale, was answered by 240 stakeholders representing government and planning bodies, the private tourism sector, universities and local communities. The scales were reliable (Cronbach's alpha = 0.88 to 0.91), and an exploratory factor analysis revealed the four intended dimensions (67.1% of the variance). All four dimensions were high (ranging from 3.64 for foresight to 4.02 for adaptive policies), and the statement whether planning bodies already have sufficient foresight was the only one at the moderate level (M = 3.08). The three independent variables correlated positively with perceived effectiveness (r = 0.48 to 0.70) and together explained 57.2% of its variance. The adaptive policies had the largest standardized effect (β = 0.42), followed by foresight/scenario planning (β = 0.33) and drivers of change (β = 0.16). All seven hypotheses were supported. The design is cross-sectional and self-reported, the dependent variable records expectations of a proposed framework and not observed results, and the sampling method affects generalization